The Next President of the United States of America

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I there a 'favourite' so far ?

Down Under we are all wondering who it will be

In the recent Federal Election in Australia it was always pretty clear who would form the next Federal Government on November 24, 2007, based on historically reliable opinion polls such as this one

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/pubpolls.html

(scroll down to Federal Election 2007)

PS: For Coalition, read Repulican
For Non-Coalition, read Democrat
As a comparison

Does the USA have any similar indicators ?

As the US President is, in reality, the most powerfull ofice in the world, the result is of much interests to Australians as Americans

Obama seems to be the preferred choice here
Would appreciate your thoughts and predictions

As far as the candidates go, Obama is 99% assured the nomination. Even if Hillary wins every single primary and caucus remaining by 16.5%, she'll still be behind by roughly 30-60 pledged delegates (I've seen the math). Depending on whether or not she continues the smear campaign on Obama, the winner of the Presidential Elections may be McCain. Hillary has no chance unless, by being extremely stupid, the super-delegates swing the vote against the people's choice. But then the Democratic party would become severely divided and McCain would have a huge chance of winning. From what I can tell, Obama is the "favorite." That doesn't seem very easy to read, so if you're confused I can try to rephrase it.

the difference in the # of delegates is one thing but have you seen how shockingly close the number of actual votes is between Clinton & Obama? It's amazing!!Now, as my Canadian brain remembers in the US, when an President has served his 2 terms, it's fairly uncommon for his successor to be elected (Bush Sr. being one of the few exceptions) correct?The major divide in the democrats may give the republicas much strength thoughbtw, sorry about our right wing, temporary government leaking documents to interfere... they are remarkably arrogant and TEMPORARY

It's really way too early to predict much. The primaries don't end until June, and the actual election is almost 10 months away yet. And Clinton and Obama are actually almost tied. There's just too much that can happen between now and then. There seems to be a widely held view that Obama stands a better chance against McCain, but nothing's certain. In a world with any sanity the republicans should have no chance whatsoever no matter who they run against, but I have a real fear that that's not the case. We could well end up with McCain.

Right now it looks like Obama will most likely be the democrat nominee, but Hillary still has a good shot. McCain will most definitely be the republican nominee. Before, everyone was expecting a democratic win, because as Bush has gotten more unpopular so has his party. But because the democratic race is so close, and if Hillary keeps using smear tactics, the democrats could be divided. I, personally, would like Hillary or Obama, but prefer Obama much more. Hillary needs to stop being so aggressive with her campaign against Obama, because she may be setting up the democrats to lose the general election by doing that. I think that she's dividing the party, and just needs to step aside and let Obama take the nomination so we don't get McCain in office.But, I still think that the democrats will win in november. Republicans have been losing a lot of ground because of Bush. And I'm not so sure that Bush's endorsement of McCain will help him. If anything, I think that it could hurt him because of Bush's low approval ratings. overall, my money is on Obama, but it could go among any 3 of them.

I won't get too involve on this topic as I can get pretty "heated" I suppose. I am still a huge Hillary supporter. I think its ridiculous people are countering her out and saying she should give up on her campaign. Obama and Clinton are basically tied when it comes to delegates, so I think its absurd people are counting her out. Remember Bill Clinton was in third place during his race than after winning Ohio he came back and took 1st place which lead to him winning the Presidential Election. Everyone was counting him out back than and he proved everyone wrong. On a side not, I like Hillary's fiery personality. I think we need someone in office who is passionate.

at the same time hillary also stated yesterday..maybe it was tuesday actually, that she supports a hillary/obama ticket in november, and this is just the way to decide whos on the top of the ticket.

Originally Posted By: Grvtykllrat the same time hillary also stated yesterday..maybe it was tuesday actually, that she supports a hillary/obama ticket in november, and this is just the way to decide whos on the top of the ticket. Yuppers I read that as well. I personally think it would be a great idea. Granted I'd rather see Hillary on the topic of the ticket, but I think as a team they would be great.

I say we all vote for Bill Cosby or Robin Williams or the like....

Originally Posted By: A V as Bush has gotten more unpopular so has his party.  Quote:Bush's low approval ratings. Let's not forget that, as low as Bush's approval rating may be, they are far from being as low as your Democrats in Congress. So are you going to allow the same argument...low approval means lower chance of election for your candidate? Or would you rather forget this pesky little detail?

Originally Posted By: unsupervisedthe difference in the # of delegates is one thing but have you seen how shockingly close the number of actual votes is between Clinton & Obama? It's amazing!!Now, as my Canadian brain remembers in the US, when an President has served his 2 terms, it's fairly uncommon for his successor to be elected (Bush Sr. being one of the few exceptions) correct?What do you mean by successor?

Except for me. If you vote for me as your President, I promise to give you candy, and not that crappy grape or watermelon flavored candy, I'm talking about the good type!

Lets bring this fucker back to the top, but only because I have new info on it... Fuck being VP!

I personally think either one should feel lucky if they become vice-president, regardless who wins the nomination. I have said it before and I'll say it again, as a team I think Clinton and Obama would be terrific... granted I would still like to see Hillary on the top of the ticket.

Myself, id love to see them as a team, but unlike eddie I want Obama on top of that ticket.

well, it's political-speak non-denial anyway. He's says he's not running for 2nd place but I'm sure he'd take it "for the good of the country" if that's the way things work out.

If Hilary is ever one bullet away from being President, I sure as heck wouldn't want to be President!

Originally Posted By: damien Originally Posted By: A V as Bush has gotten more unpopular so has his party.  Quote:Bush's low approval ratings. Let's not forget that, as low as Bush's approval rating may be, they are far from being as low as your Democrats in Congress. So are you going to allow the same argument...low approval means lower chance of election for your candidate? Or would you rather forget this pesky little detail? Yes, congress's approval ratings are understandably very low. But, I guess that didn't have much affect on the people, as polls still show that the majority of the people say that democrats would run the country better than republicans. And more people seem to pay attention to the president. I think that most people in the country agree with democrat's ideas and values, but see them as not doing enough in Congress. People voted democrats into congress partly to end the war, but they weren't agressive enough to end it, and Bush was too stubborn.

It seems that most democrats agree that an Obama-Clinton/Clinton-Obama ticket would be the "dream ticket". Everyone just seems to disagree on who should be on top. I think it should be Obama. But I'd also be fine with Hillary on top, just would prefer Obama.

I see Hillary is now cheating on Bill, this time around. Ya, lame, I know... A lot of the Democrats I know (Liberal part of Colorado) would not want a ticket with Hillary. I kindof think of myself as sort of a Conservative Liberal or a Moderate, and I would not want Hillary as running mate, not that it's likely to happen (unless, of course, Hillary continues the shit she's doing now, in which case it might be necessary). I wonder if that could be a reason she's doing all this mudslinging... to get a better chance at running mate even... I hope that's not true, at least. I don't know who I'd want as Obama's running mate, especially since things can change in a few months.Anyways, I've been seeing the idea of Condoleezza Rice as McCain's running mate. Any opinions on that concept?